Seasonal influenza market to reach US$3.8bn by 2018

Growth driven by growing awareness, increasing vaccination coverage and government support

GBI Research expects the seasonal influenza market to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.9% to US$3.8bn during the 2011–2018 period, up from $2.9 billion in 2011.

This growth is expected to be driven by growing awareness, increasing vaccination coverage and rising government support for immunisation against seasonal influenza.

But limited production capacity, high investment and strict regulations may act as barriers to entry, the business intelligence provider says in its latest research, Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market in Top Seven Countries to 2018 – Next Generation Quadrivalent Vaccines to Dominate the Market by Offering Broader Protection via Single Dose.

The US seasonal influenza vaccine market is the most attractive of the seven countries covered in the report. It is forecast to increase from $1.6bn in 2011 to $2.2bn in 2018 at a CAGR of 4.8%, due to the growth of the aging population, higher disease awareness and that vaccination has become more convenient.

The UK has the most attractive market in terms of growth rate and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.3%

The UK, on the other hand, has the most attractive market in terms of growth rate and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% between 2011 and 2018.

Germany’s market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% between 2011 and 2018 from $385.5m to $465m.

In Japan, the market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.6%, reaching $621.5m by 2018, driven by the threat of pandemic influenza and higher awareness of influenza vaccination. The country’s government-run influenza immunisation programme is also helping to increase vaccination coverage.

The highest overall vaccination coverage rate (40.9%) is in the US, with the lowest (18.1%) in Italy

The report says the vaccinated population in the top seven countries accounted for 28.9% of the overall population in 2011, with the highest overall vaccination coverage rate (40.9%) seen in the US and the lowest (18.1%) in Italy. The vaccinated population in the top seven countries is forecast to increase to 32.9% by 2018.

GBI Research’s analysis shows that the R&D pipeline for seasonal influenza vaccines comprises a high number of vaccines in early-stage development, many of which are new formulations or those that have been developed using the cell culture method.

Late-stage vaccines are either quadrivalent vaccines or paediatric versions of those that have already been approved. Trivalent vaccines currently dominate the market, but quadrivalent vaccines are expected to be launched in the near future.

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