HIV therapeutics growth will be hit as patents expire, says report
The growth of the HIV market is likely to decline from 2012 onwards due to the impact of patent expiry of key drugs, according to business intelligence provider GBI Research.
The growth of the HIV market is likely to decline from 2012 onwards due to the impact of patent expiry of key drugs, according to business intelligence provider GBI Research. However, migration to new branded drugs is likely to minimise the impact of generics, which currently account for approximately 7.8% of the market.
GBI Research, in its report: The future of HIV therapeutics - Market Forecasts to 2015, expects the global HIV therapeutics market to rise by 3.7% from US$10.8bn in 2008 to US$13.9bn by 2015. Growth will be driven by an increase in prescriptions and a rise in the use of newer drugs such as Atripla as part of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy.
But the impact of patent expiry is likely to reduce in 2015 as late stage pipeline drugs such as Rilpivirine by Tibotec Pharmaceuticals and Vicriviroc by Schering-Plough enter the market later in the 2008-2015 period.
The US is the largest HIV market, accounting for approximately 70%, followed by Europe, which comprises the UK, France, Italy, Spain and Germany. Japan has around a 1% share and will show the fastest growth in the geographies studied, says GBI, driven by an increase in the number of people affected by the virus being diagnosed and subsequently starting treatment. Currently Japan has very low prevalence levels.
The success of recent drug launches has made Gilead market leader in HIV therapeutics, a position it should maintain in the 2008-2015 period due to strong products which have growth potential and the lack of many late stage promising drugs in the industry pipeline.
GlaxoSmithKline and Bristol Myers Squibb, which together hold about 37% of the market, follow Gilead.
In 2008, Truvada was the leading HIV therapy brand with global sales of approximately US$2.1bn, followed by Atripla, which recorded sales of US$1.6bn globally.
