For the pharmaceutical industry, the bill is a bit of a mixed bag, although the general impression at the moment is that manufacturers will gain more than they lose. At the very least some of the uncertainty affecting the sector has been removed.
With an extra 32 million potential patients entering the market, the number of prescriptions is bound to rise, but this is likely to be offset by the imposition of higher discounts and rebates. And with a number of significant patents due to expire in 2011, a short-term downturn for the industry seems inevitable, although these negative effects should be offset by rising revenues from increased drug consumption by around 2015, according to Datamonitor.
But as drug costs rise, the US government is bound to want to make sure it is getting the best possible value for its money and will increase its involvement in the healthcare sector. While this will be good news for the manufacturers of generic medicines, the authorities will need to try to avoid some of the less palatable aspects of the UK system – trying to define ‘quality of life’, and the notorious ‘postcode prescribing’.
From a European point of view, the US system was patently unfair and long overdue for reform. However imperfect the various healthcare regimes are in the EU, there is at least always a safety net to ensure that every citizen is entitled to receive at least a basic level of service.
It is hard to comprehend the strenuous efforts mounted – both by opposition politicians and the general public – to defend a system that excludes more than 32 million people and where a patient who survives cancer is essentially ruled out of any future treatment by a massive rise in premiums that put them beyond the reach of those on an average income. Shockingly, half of all personal bankruptcies in the US are at least partially due to medical costs.
The reforms may still be flawed, but at least those outside the current system dangling by a thin rope and staring into the abyss have been thrown a lifeline.
Hilary Ayshford
Editor
