Assessing the balance of risk
It's been a good month for vaccine manufacturers. All the major swine flu vaccine contenders have either been approved or will be imminently by authorities on both sides of the Atlantic, and stocks are being delivered in preparation for mass vaccination before the next wave of the illness strikes down large swathes of the world's population.
It's been a good month for vaccine manufacturers. All the major swine flu vaccine contenders have either been approved or will be imminently by authorities on both sides of the Atlantic, and stocks are being delivered in preparation for mass vaccination before the next wave of the illness strikes down large swathes of the world's population.
?However, the industry is still at the beginning of the learning curve regarding the effectiveness of the vaccine. Early indications suggest that in some cases a single dose may be enough to provide protection, but there is still some way to go before this can be verified.
Meanwhile, the latest research published in the Journal of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease has found that babies in the womb exposed to the H1N1 virus are significantly more likely to suffer cardiovascular disease later in life, thereby underlining the importance of vaccination for pregnant women.
Children are another high risk group, and in the UK the first 1,000 children aged between six months and 12 years are taking part in a clinical trial to test two competing vaccines for efficacy and side-effects. I can imagine that parents deciding whether to allow their child to take part are in something of a dilemma.
Among the 20-30 age group, vaccination campaigns have a tarnished image as a result of irresponsible media coverage of the purported link between the MMR vaccine and autism. This misconception was finally laid to rest by research that found the rate of autism in adults in England is identical to that among children, even though the MMR vaccine was introduced less than 20 years ago.
But just as the swine flu vaccine trial got underway, news broke that a 14-year old girl had died within hours of being given the HPV vaccine Cervarix. Even though the vaccine did not contribute to her demise, you could hardly blame mothers all over the country from having second thoughts about letting anyone with a needle near their children.
But without a steady stream of willing volunteers there would be no new medicines. To make the decision on your own behalf is reasonably easy, but to make it on behalf of your child must be incredibly hard.
With the level of information currently available assessing the balance of risk is almost impossible.