Cancer therapies market will become overcrowded
Effective new anticancer products could be crowded out of the market for some types of cancer by the end of the decade, according to a new market analysis. For any of the most actively researched cancers – such as breast, prostate, lung, colorectal and melanoma – the large number of products currently in clinical trials will translate into a formidable build- up of new products by the end of this decade, the analysis says. This means that many latecomers, and those drugs which represent a less than major breakthrough, will be commercial failures.
According to independent consultant John Ansell, co-author of an article based on the analysis, which used the Pharmaprojects database, said that the findings would come as a surprise to many in the pharmaceutical industry, with the general downturn in the number of new products reaching the market at the moment. However, he predicted that there would be a turnaround shortly in this situation, leading to product crowding in the most fiercely competitive areas by the end of the decade.
Co-author Dr Brian Minter, of the independent consultancy Chembio, said that there were just under 200 compounds currently in development for breast cancer, of which no fewer than 155 have got as far as clinical trials. Applying the historical attrition rates of Pharmaprojects r&d time-lines benchmarking tool would, he said, suggest that a staggering 46 of these would eventually achieve regulatory approval and reach the market as new products for breast cancer.
According to Minter, the answer is for companies to give every consideration to the less-intensively researched cancers such as renal and stomach cancer. Currently there are only nine projects that have got as far as clinical trials for stomach cancer, of which two or three might be expected to reach the market, he suggested. 'Even if this sector of the market is less attractive, any registrable new product could easily become a blockbuster.'
Furthermore, Ansell predicted that the crowding conundrum was likely to become an issue in other research areas, such as cardiovascular, CNS and diabetes. 'Companies should not presume that they can count on success in the market,' he warned.