Monoclonal antibody sales likely to almost double in coming years
In 2007 total global monoclonal antibody (mAb) sales reached $26 bn (€17.8bn) and are forecast to almost double to $49 bn (€33.5bn) by 2013.
In 2007 total global monoclonal antibody (mAb) sales reached $26 bn (Euro 17.8bn) and are forecast to almost double to $49bn (€33.5bn) by 2013.
While small molecule drug sales will continue to make up the majority of total market sales, the mAb market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 11% will continue to grow at a much greater rate than their small molecule counterparts.
Traditionally, the "big five" mAbs - Avastin, Herceptin, Rituxan, Humira and Remicade - have dominated the market, cornering almost 80% of sales in 2007. However, market analyst Datamonitor has identified an "emerging eight" group of mAbs that will each achieve annual sales of at least $500 m between 2007-2013.
The primary reason for the difference between small molecule and monoclonal antibody growth outlooks is the degree of exposure to generic competition. Small molecules are the focus of the voracious generics industry while monoclonal antibodies are expected to remain effectively insulated from generic competition in 2013 due to an insurmountable blend of regulatory, technical and intellectual property barriers.
However, the superior growth outlook of monoclonal antibodies is not just due to the absence of generic competition, says Datamonitor pharmaceutical markets analyst John Bird. "mAbs currently - and will continue to - command a three-fold average revenue per product premium over small molecules.
"This mAb revenue premium is supported by a higher demand for mAbs because they address therapy areas of high unmet need and lower competitive intensity due to accessing a novel target space," he says.
The eight emerging therapies that are each forecast to demonstrate significant increases in annual sales - to greater than $500m are: Elan/Wyeth's bapineuzumab, Amgen and Eisai's denosumab, AstraZeneca/Abbott's Numax (motavizumab), Johnson & Johnson/Schering Plough's golimumab, Genentech/Novartis's Lucentis (ranibizumab), Roche/Chugai's Actemra (tocilizumab), Biogen Idec/Elan's Tysabri (natalizumab) and UCB's Cimzia (certolizumab pegol).