Rapid growth in vaccines to 2011, predicts report

Vaccine sales could increase by 18% a year between 2006 and 2011, according to a report on the global pharma sector by US investment bank Lehman Brothers.

This would make vaccines the fastest growing of any branded therapeutic category, with treatments for HIV the second highest at 13% per annum.

Vaccine sales are likely to reach US$29.7bn (Euro 21.1bn) in 2011, driven largely by cervical cancer vaccines Gardasil and Cervarix; paediatric vaccines such as Rotarix as they are launched into the developing world; and meningitis vaccines Prevnar and Menactra.

Sales of HIV drugs will be driven by an expected 4.9 million new cases a year and the success of triple combination therapies and new launches (CCR5 inhibitors, integrase inhibitors).

Treatments for neurodegeneration/multiple sclerosis are set to increase by 12% a year, driven by interferons (Betaseron, Rebif), Copaxone and Tysabri. Anti-inflammatory drugs will continue to grow strongly, up 11% a year to 2011, driven by the shift from cheaper NSAIDS to higher priced biologics such as Humira (Abbott), Remicade (J&J/Schering-Plough), Enbrel (Wyeth/Amgen) and Orencia (BMS), the report predicts.

Another strong growth category will be cancer drugs, up 11% a year, driven by growth in biologics such as Avastin, Rituxan and Herceptin.

By 2010, Lehman forecasts the global cancer market could reach about $73bn (€52bn), of which $22bn (€15.6bn) will be from biologics.

Treatments for diabetes are expected to grow by 11% a year to 2011 despite Lehman's prediction of a switch from GlaxoSmithKline's Avandia to Actos. Overall, the diabetes sector is expected to be driven by strong expectations for the insulin analogues (particularly Novo's Novolog and Levemir, Sanofi's Lantus), the Actos franchise, and launches of novel drugs such as the DPP4 inhibitors and the GLP-1 agonists.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is likely to be another strong growth area of about 10% a year driven by current low rates of treatment, success of the new class of long acting muscarinic (M3) antagonists (LAMAs) and limited generic competition.

In the cardiovascular category, Lehman expects to see the impact of US patent expiries of older brands in this large, mature category, with growth slowing from 10% a year over the last five years to 1% per annum over the coming five years.

"The decline in the lipid-lowering category reflects loss of an important pipeline product - torcetrapib (Pfizer) - in December 2006 and the loss of patent protection on Zocor (Merck) and Pravachol (BMS) both in 2006, which is only partly offset by expected growth of Vytorin/Zetia (Merck/Schering-Plough) and Crestor (AstraZeneca)," the report says.

To 2010, Lehman forecasts a slower growth in Lipitor (Pfizer) sales to 1-1.5% growth as the drug reaches the end of its lifecycle. And it forecasts growth in the hypertension category to turn negative with expected increase in generic competition for AZN's Toprol XL in the second half of 2007 and the early launch of generics for Norvasc by Mylan (March 2007) and Lotrel by Teva (May 2007).

In the respiratory category, growth is expected to slow from 10% a year historically to 5%. "The principal loser is the allergy/antihistamine sub-category, which will experience the generic erosion of Zyrtec (UCB/Pfizer) in the US.

"In contrast, the asthma/COPD subcategories should continue to grow at around 7-10%, reflecting continued growth in Advair (GSK), Symbicort (AZN) and Spiriva (Pfizer/Boehringer Ingelheim) franchises."

The CNS market is forecast to slow dramatically, with sales growth of 12% a year historically falling to 1% by 2011. "Many of the sub-categories are fairly mature and start to experience either a natural saturation of the patient base (schizophrenia, Alzheimer's) or generic competition for leading brands (in depression - Zoloft (Pfizer), Wellbutrin XL (GSK) and Effexor (Wyeth).

Lehman forecasts that fewer big-selling drugs will be launched over the coming years. Between 2007 and 2011, it says, only 25 new drugs a year are likely to achieve peak sales of at least $800m (€568m), compared with 31 in the 2002-2006 period. The number of launches of drugs with peak sales of at least $500m (€355m) is likely to be 29 a year between 2007-2011, down from 33 in 2002-2006.

Lehman believes the average peak potential of new launches expected between 2007 and 2011 is about $850m (€603m), about 10% lower than forecasts for drugs launched in the last five years, although it notes that 2004 launches included Avastin ($12.3bn peak) and Zocor-Zetiia ($5.5bn peak), which skew the historic average.

Overall, the banking group believes there will be 38 drug launches a year between 2007 and 2011, unchanged from 2002 to 2006, confirming a flat rather than a declining level of new drug launches.

Lehman believes GlaxoSmithKline will lead the world with 21 drug lauches between 2007 and 2011, followed by Novartis with 16 and Sanofi-Aventis with 15. Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca and US-based Merck are each likely to launch 10 drugs while Pfizer is forecast to launch nine.

Schering-Plough, Bayer and Eisai are each expected to have eight new treatments on the market over that period, Wyeth, Abbott and Daiichi Sankyo are likely to launch seven each while Shire and Astellas have six. A number of companies are expected to launch five, including Roche, Takeda and Dainippon Sumitomo.