Market growth shifts to emerging markets and from primary to specialty care

The global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at most 6% next year, compared with 6-7% in 2007, according to IMS Health's 2008 Global Pharmaceutical Market and Therapy Forecast.

The forecast predicts global pharmaceutical sales to expand to US$735 - 745 bn next year.

"In several respects, 2008 marks an important inflection point for the global pharmaceutical market," said Murray Aitken, senior vice president, Healthcare Insight, IMS.

"For the first time, the seven largest markets will contribute just half of overall pharmaceutical market growth, while seven emerging markets will contribute nearly 25 % of growth worldwide. And, as the impact of established pharmaceuticals losing patent protection accelerates, we will see a decline for the first time in the size of the $370 - 380 bn audited market for primary care-driven drugs.

"In the coming year, biopharmaceutical and generics companies will more aggressively adjust their business models to manage through these inflections, capturing new opportunities in this changing market environment."

In 2008, IMS expects drug treatment costs to decline in several major therapy areas where leading products have lost or will lose patent protection, and as generic drugs capture significant market share. These include lipid regulators, calcium channel blockers, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, osteoporosis therapies and proton pump inhibitors.

The decline is most significant in the US market - where treatment costs per day have declined 20 - 40 % in 2007 in therapy areas impacted by the loss of market exclusivity for Norvasc, Zocor and Zoloft.

"These treatment cost declines are expected to continue through next year," said Aitken, who noted that in the case of osteoporosis therapies and proton pump inhibitors, expected entry of generics competition for Fosamax and Protonix will likely result in 10 - 25 % reductions in drug treatment costs in these classes in 2008.

The seven emerging. markets of China, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India, Turkey and Russia are expected to grow 12 - 13% next year, to $85 - 90 bn. In these markets, there is significantly greater access both to generic and innovative new medicines as primary care improves and becomes more available in rural areas, and as private health insurance becomes more commonly held. Ongoing economic growth in the developing world will continue to shift the focus away from infectious diseases and toward cardiovascular, diabetes and other chronic illnesses.

IMS anticipates up to 29 innovative new medicines will be launched in 2008 - 8 % of which will be primarily prescribed by specialists. These include four new oncology drugs for treating melanoma, prostate cancer and acute myeloid leukemia. Products used in the treatment of oncology are expected to exceed $45 bn in value in 2008, contributing nearly 17 % of audited market growth. Overall growth in the audited specialty-driven market is forecast to grow to $295 - 305 bn, reflecting 14 - 15 % growth next year.