The darkest hour

As the year draws to a close it is customary to spend some time reflecting on past events and looking forward to whatever the future may hold.

It has to be said that 2003 has not been the most auspicious year for the global pharmaceutical industry. The chill winds of economic recession continue to blow across Europe and the US, causing the tender green shoots of recovery to keep their heads firmly below ground level.

And lying in wait around the corner is the EU, sharpening the blades of its latest legislative in preparation to REACH out and cut a swathe through the European chemical sector.

Depleted pipelines, overcapacity and deeply unsatisfactory levels of productivity have been reflected in a series of disappointing financial results. The hope that things would improve during the second half of the year has not been realised, with even the likes of Bayer and BASF turning in another set of poor figures. It appears that their drastic restructuring measures have yet to bear fruit.

Looking at the wider picture, however, it hasn't all been bad news. After many years of trying, agreement was finally reached on ways of ensuring that HIV/AIDS, malaria and TB victims in developing countries will get the medicines they so desperately need at prices they can afford, while at the same time trying to prevent these drugs finding their way back onto the markets of developed countries through the back door.

And while approvals of new chemical entities is still relatively low, there has been much work carried out using existing therapies for new indications, improving their effectiveness by using them in combination with other products, and exploring new and more efficient ways of delivering them to the appropriate site in the body.

Companies that are finding themselves under pressure in Europe and the US are also looking outwards and setting up manufacturing sites in other parts of the world, notably India, China and South America. Not only will this help with profitability issues, it also gives them a foothold in some of the countries where demand for pharmaceuticals is growing rapidly.

Looking forward to 2004, the prospect varies according to who you speak to. At CPhI there were many companies who believe that the bottom of the cycle has been reached and that the only way now is up. Some even claimed that they were already seeing signs of recovery. Others, in contrast, were predicting at least another 12 months in the doldrums.

It is said that the hour is always darkest just before the dawn. Let us hope that the sun does start to shine again on the pharma sector next year and that the glimmers of hope that some claim to be seeing do not prove to be a false dawn