Big pharma's r&d cupboard is nearly bare, says new research
Current big pharma r&d pipelines hold 18 blockbusters worth an estimated US$24.0bn (€24.4bn) by 2008, according to new research from US market analysis company Datamonitor. The two therapy areas with the greatest patient potential are cardiovascular and CNS, which between them account for 60% of the new blockbuster sales in 2008. Cardiovascular products are likely to generate $10.1bn (€10.2bn) in new blockbuster revenues by 2008.
Of the top companies, AstraZeneca's pipeline has the greatest blockbuster potential with r&d drivers worth $7.2bn (€7.3bn) in 2008, while cardiovascular drugs are set to maintain their dominance of the blockbuster market with 44.5% of overall sales. The product with the highest forecast sales is AZ's Crestor (rosuvastatin), which Datamonitor believes will attain sales of $1.575bn (€1.60bn) in 2004 and $3.776bn (€3.832bn) in 2008. The pipeline of new products looks set to more than make up for the revenue loss following the patent expiry of AstraZeneca's current blockbuster Prilosec (omeprazole).
The launch of three new blockbusters will help Eli Lilly recover from the patent loss of Prozac (fluoxetine) in 2001. These three products will have a combined sales potential of $2.4bn (€2.4bn)in 2008, and will be supported by the recently launched sepsis drug Xigris, and two more pipeline products, ADHD drug atomoxetine and the impotence drug Cialis, both of which have revenue potential in excess of $250m (€254m).
However, the future does not look so bright for five of the other top tier pharmaceutical companies - Johnson & Johnson, Aventis, Pharmacia, Roche and Wyeth. Despite r&d spends in excess of $1bn (€1bn), says Datamonitor, they have no late stage blockbuster products. Unless they have a large number of smaller products to counteract declining revenue drivers, they will have severe difficulties in maintaining growth, the company warns.
Neal Hansen, senior pharmaceutical analyst at Datamonitor, comments: 'The fact that five top tier pharma have no late stage blockbuster potential highlights the need for companies to source new revenue drivers from further M&A or licensing activities.'
Pharma companies are facing an unprecedented number of patent expiries, says Datamonitor, with 15 of the 44 current blockbusters with annual sales of over $1bn (€1bn) set to lose US patent protection by the end of 2002. This will affect approximately $30bn (€30bn) of revenues, and the future growth of the sector will depend on replacing declining products with new revenue drivers.